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Every horse player should use a system for evaluating the runners and also for evaluating the bets, or odds. One is based on the other and they work together to form the basis of a betting strategy with two goals.
1. Preserve your bankroll
2. Make a profit
While it may appear simple on the surface or at first glance, it is devilishly difficult to reconcile probability with price because the market, as I often refer to the wagering pools is very good at adjusting itself. If there was no takeout, otherwise known as the vig, then breaking even would not be difficult and actually making a profit would be within the reach of more people. Unfortunately for the bettors, however, the piper must be paid and the vig is the bane of a horse player's existence.
The best wagering strategy then should be one that makes wagers in small enough increments, or units to withstand the ravages of a very volatile market as well as returning a profit above and beyond the actual money wagered.
The process of finding the best horse racing bets starts with a handicapping method that uses the major factors of horse racing to determine how likely each runner may be to find the winner's circle. In mathematical terms, the melding of these factors after weighting each one, is known as an algorithm. Your job as an investor is to find the horse racing system with the best algorithm for the particular track and races that you are playing.
Your next step is to assign odds to each horse that will become your value line. If you start with break even odds and then add what you feel is your least amount of profit to the odds, you will arrive at your own limit. For instance, if horse A has a 50% chance of winning the race, then the break even amount to bet on that horse would be even money or 1-1. But if you need to make a profit of 20% in order to make the bet attractive then you must add that to the wagering amount. If you need to wager $2 to make $4 back and must add 20% to that your new wager limit becomes a payoff of $4.80.
For every $4 that you wager you will get a return of $4.80 and that will be a profit of 80 cents on every successful wager. Remember, your winning wagers also include the price of your losing wagers when determining your profit margin and costs.
So a simple way to express this strategy is...
Pr(profit) = W (minimum wager) / P (probability) x PM (profit margin)
.80 = $2/.50 x.20
The critical parts of this strategy are first of all to accurately evaluate and determine each runner's chances of winning and secondly to watch the tote board and find the runner that will return a profit based on the odds and expected probability.
1. Preserve your bankroll
2. Make a profit
While it may appear simple on the surface or at first glance, it is devilishly difficult to reconcile probability with price because the market, as I often refer to the wagering pools is very good at adjusting itself. If there was no takeout, otherwise known as the vig, then breaking even would not be difficult and actually making a profit would be within the reach of more people. Unfortunately for the bettors, however, the piper must be paid and the vig is the bane of a horse player's existence.
The best wagering strategy then should be one that makes wagers in small enough increments, or units to withstand the ravages of a very volatile market as well as returning a profit above and beyond the actual money wagered.
The process of finding the best horse racing bets starts with a handicapping method that uses the major factors of horse racing to determine how likely each runner may be to find the winner's circle. In mathematical terms, the melding of these factors after weighting each one, is known as an algorithm. Your job as an investor is to find the horse racing system with the best algorithm for the particular track and races that you are playing.
Your next step is to assign odds to each horse that will become your value line. If you start with break even odds and then add what you feel is your least amount of profit to the odds, you will arrive at your own limit. For instance, if horse A has a 50% chance of winning the race, then the break even amount to bet on that horse would be even money or 1-1. But if you need to make a profit of 20% in order to make the bet attractive then you must add that to the wagering amount. If you need to wager $2 to make $4 back and must add 20% to that your new wager limit becomes a payoff of $4.80.
For every $4 that you wager you will get a return of $4.80 and that will be a profit of 80 cents on every successful wager. Remember, your winning wagers also include the price of your losing wagers when determining your profit margin and costs.
So a simple way to express this strategy is...
Pr(profit) = W (minimum wager) / P (probability) x PM (profit margin)
.80 = $2/.50 x.20
The critical parts of this strategy are first of all to accurately evaluate and determine each runner's chances of winning and secondly to watch the tote board and find the runner that will return a profit based on the odds and expected probability.
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